Thus, these exports led alone to a According to Table 7 , both for agriculture and for industry, the most relevant final demand components were exports, personal consumption expenditure and gross fixed capital formation. Conversely, the most relevant components for the service sector appear to have been government and personal consumption.
It may therefore be concluded that, on the one hand, exports and gross fixed capital formation had significant impacts on the agricultural and industrial sectors, but only secondary effects on services. On the other hand, the opposite was observed for government consumption: a relevant effect on services, but a secondary one on the other sectors.
Finally, Table 8 shows similar results to those of the previous table, but disaggregated into the 12 activities that make up the sectors. As to the industrial sector, this decomposition allows a clearer distinction between the effects of each component of final demand: the mineral extraction industry was fostered mainly by exports; the manufacturing industry, by personal consumption and by gross fixed capital formation; generation and distribution of electricity, by personal consumption; and, finally, the construction industry, by gross fixed capital formation.
In its turn, the service sector was influenced mainly by personal consumption. Government consumption, which was relevant for services at the aggregate level, at the disaggregated level seems to basically influence public administration, health and education services however, it is worth mentioning a secondary but relevant effect of this component on the services of information and of financial intermediation, insurance, and pension funds. As previously highlighted, the manufacturing's declining share of GDP observed in the Brazilian economy since the s has fostered a strong debate about its causes and consequences.
This paper sought to contribute to this debate by revealing, among other results, that the major determinant of the growth differential between services and industry in the s was the lower intermediate consumption of domestic industrial inputs by the production chain of all economic sectors. In addition, this paper shows that if, on the one hand, the increase in final demand played an important role in the growth of the Brazilian economy in the s, on the other the magnitude and direction of the influence of each component of this demand were quite heterogeneous.
In fact, the results allowed drawing the following conclusions:. In the remainder of the economy, it played a less important role. It was not within the scope of the present study to assess whether the concern with the smaller share of industry in the GDP is valid, or whether compensatory measures for the industry are desirable.
However, it is possible to conclude that, if policy makers are interested in such compensatory measures and if one wants to offset the changes in the production structure with stimulus for the aggregate demand, one should create incentives for gross fixed capital formation, to the detriment of government consumption. This conclusion is supported by Dasgupta and Singh and Rowthorn and Ramaswamy , who find positive correlations between the level of gross fixed capital formation and the share of manufacturing in employment and production.
However, Dos Santos and Pires show that private investment in Brazil is little sensitive to changes intaxes, implying that the ability of policymakers to induce an increase in the former variable through the traditional tools of fiscal policyis very limited. In this sense, Demir employs a model of portfolio choice in order to explain the low investment rates of three developing countries Argentina, Mexico and Turkey during the s.
The author argues that, given risk, uncertainty, imperfections in capital markets and relative returns, firms may prefer to make reversible short-term financial investments than irreversible long-term fixed ones. This can also be the reason lying behind the insensitivity of Brazilian private investment in relation totaxes, but that remains a hypothesis to be investigated in future research.
Abrir menu Brasil. Abrir menu. Alexandre Messa About the author. Structural change; input-output analysis. Keywords: Structural change; input-output analysis. Macroeconomics of unbalanced growth: the anatomy of urban crisis.
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